THE 2024 NFL SEASON SPECTACULAR

Welcome to my 3rd annual NFL pre-season prediction post for this upcoming NFL season which gets underway on Thursday, September 6th when the Baltimore Ravens, losers in the AFC Championship game last year, go to Kansas City to attempt to enact revenge and beat the two-time defending champs. Every season, my predictions have become more accurate even if the team I selected to win the Super Bowl was incorrect. Last season, I correctly predicted nine of the fourteen playoff teams (It was eight the previous season). In the AFC, Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City did finish 1, 2 and 3 like predicted even if I had their seeds swapped. Jacksonville choked away the division on the last day and Houston got the #4. Cleveland was the #5 (Instead of my pick of Cincinnati) and I got Miami as the 6 and Pittsburgh as the 7.
In the NFC, I again got three of the divisional winners correct (Damn Southern Divisions in both Conferences). Dallas ended up with the 2 not the 1, San Francisco with the 1 instead of the 3, and Detroit got the 3, not the 4. Tampa Bay again won the South and was #4. And on the wild card front, Philadelphia did get in as the #5 and both the LA Rams and Green Bay Packers who were not on my radar finished with the #6 and #7 seeds. So, looking to repeat this wonderful year of results which was better than most ESPN and CBS Sports professional analysts, here are my predictions followed by a quick review of the 2023 season.
Super Bowl LVIII: Kansas City defeated San Francisco 25-22 in OT. It was the 2nd OT game in Super Bowl history. The only other OT Super Bowl was the incredible 25-point comeback by the New England Patriots against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI winning 34-28. Kansas City won their 6th AFC Championship (Placing them in 3rd place in the AFC behind New England (11) and Pittsburgh (8)), 4th Super Bowl and 2nd consecutive (Which places them in a tie for 5th with Green Bay and the New York Giants in the Super Bowl era). San Francisco won their 8th NFC Championship (Which ties them for 1st in the NFC with Dallas) but proceeded to lose their 3rd consecutive Super Bowl with their 3rd different quarterback after the 5-0 run of Joe Montana (4) in the 1980s and Steve Young in the 90s (1). Only four teams have lost three consecutive Super Bowls, and the 49ers streak is active (Minnesota and Buffalo have lost all four appearances and their streaks are active while Denver also lost four straight before winning their 5th appearance in 1997). Kansas City will look to become the 9th team and 8th franchise attempt to claim the elusive NFL three-peat (Which hasn’t happened since Green Bay won three straight including the first two Super Bowls between 1965-1967).
After this past season, Super Bowl history looks very streamlined. Two teams have won 6 (New England and Pittsburgh both in the AFC), two teams have won 5 (Dallas and San Francisco both in the NFC), three teams have won 4 (Green Bay, NY Giants and Kansas City), and three teams have won 3 (Las Vegas, Washington and Denver). Five teams have won 2 (Miami, LA Rams, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Tampa Bay) and five teams have only won one (Philadelphia, Seattle, Chicago, New Orleans, and the NY Jets). 8 other teams have made the Super Bowl and never won while 4 teams remain without an appearance. So, how will this change in 2024? Let’s begin with the AFC.
 
AFC East

1) Miami
2) Buffalo
3) NY Jets
4) New England

This is the year that Miami takes the next step and ends Buffalo’s reign of four straight AFC East Titles (After the Patriots reign of terror of winning 17 of the previous 19 division titles). The defense is improved and if Tua remains healthy and the running game remains potent, they will win twelve to thirteen games and take the division. If anything happens to Tua, the Dolphins will again be a near .500 team.

Buffalo is due for a retreat. The championship window for this team is likely shuttering in the near term despite the incredible talent of Josh Allen. Losing in the 2020 AFC Title game by 14 mixed in with the infamous 13 second Mahomes drive in 2021 and the wide right ending against that same Chiefs team last year have been painful losses. With Diggs leaving and the defense aging, the Bills need a youth infusion. Until this occurs, the Bills look like a wild card team on paper. This is where they will finish.

The NY Jets are an interesting wild card. If Rodgers fixes their offensive problems at forty-one years of age and the defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL, the Jets can easily walk away with this division. So why am I not putting them above the Dolphins and Bills? Because this is the Jets. The team has a history of weird, random injuries and this franchise feels like it has a permanent dark cloud hanging over it. Even with a healthy Rodgers, I still don’t see the Jets winning more than nine and missing the playoffs. We will see.

New England is bad. Good luck winning four games.

AFC North

1) Cincinnati
2) Baltimore
3) Cleveland
4) Pittsburgh

Last year, Cincinnati lost its starting QB and RB to terrible injuries. The team battled the injury bug all season. Despite this, they finished last in the North with a 9-8 winning record. Now with that run of back luck behind them, this Bengals team is very good. If they remain healthy, they have fantastic offensive talent, an improved offensive line (Their Achilles heel the last few years), and a still effective defense. This solid, deep team will put it together and take back the North in 2024 from Baltimore.

Baltimore had the best opportunity they have had since Ray Lewis was prowling around in their defensive backfield in 2012 to reach their 3rd Super Bowl. Turnovers at inopportune times and an offense that was out of sync despite the Ravens defense shutting Mahomes down in the 2nd half cost them a conference title. These opportunities do not present themselves often. Lamar and his fun offense paired with the Ravens wonderful defense will get another shot. This team is still fantastic, and it can be argued that they have improved from last year. We will see if Baltimore can return to the Big Game. The Ravens will be back in the playoffs.

Cleveland is another unknown. If Deshaun Watson can recover some of the brilliance he had early in his career before all his legal troubles, this Cleveland team can not only win the North but the AFC Title. The Cleveland defense, consistent with every team in the North, is very good. But the future of this season rides on the shoulders of Deshaun. And it feels like they are going to be outside of the playoffs looking in when the season concludes.

Pittsburgh who has had offensive problems since Big Ben retired (And who was banged up badly his last few years in the NFL) is looking to a Super Bowl winning veteran or an Ohio State superstar who has been a big disappointment in the NFL to turn around their offensive woes. The defense remains solid and effective. Even though Mike Tomlin seems to pull out pixie dust to keep this team at .500 and above during every season of his coaching career, it feels like he will need another miracle to keep this team competitive. I think Tomlin’s luck finally breaks. The Steelers will end up with a losing record and for the first time in nearly two decades, they will be looking for a new coach in 2025.

AFC South

1) Indianapolis
2) Jacksonville
3) Houston
4) Tennessee

The Southern divisions have been my curse the last few years. All these teams have not been terrible, but they were nothing if barely above mediocre even as division winners.

Three of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL live inside this division. CJ Stroud with Houston won a playoff game last year, Trevor Lawrence won a playoff game during the 2022 season and Anthony Richardson who got hurt after showing signs of being an elite quarterback early last season. This year, it will be Richardson’s time to shine. The Colts will discover that the young QB they drafted in 2023 will be just as good as Stroud. His performance combined with an underrated and effective defense will grab them the AFC South title. Jacksonville will again likely win nine to ten games, but my analysis has them missing the playoffs by tiebreaker. Houston, which is building something special for the future feels like a team that will take a step back in 2024 due to the NFL adjusting to Stroud and the Texans undergoing more adversity in year number two. But look out for Houston in 2025.

Tennessee looks like a five-to-six-win team. They are on the lower tier and will need a lot of things to go right to compete in this division at the end of the year.

AFC West

1) Kansas City
2) LA Chargers
3) Denver
4) Las Vegas

What can really be said about the Chiefs, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Swifties? This team looked broken offensively last season; no receivers could catch, the running game was inconsistent, and their defense seemed to keep them in most games. Despite the regular season struggles, the Chiefs won four playoff games including the Super Bowl in overtime to become the 8th NFL team to win back-to-back Super Bowls (The list is Green Bay, Miami, Pittsburgh (Twice), San Francisco, Denver, Dallas and New England). There is no team in the AFC or NFC that has been able to beat them in the playoffs except for teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady (Retired) and Joe Burrow. Mahomes is already 15-3 in the playoffs. The Chiefs got better at wide receiver and on defense during the offseason. They have the best kicker in the NFL. The 2024 Super Bowl is theirs until someone can prove otherwise.

The LA Chargers with loads of talent could be the surprise team of 2024. With the controversial Jim Harbaugh coming off his NCAA title with Michigan now coaching and looking to add a Super Bowl to his coaching collection, this team is an unknown quantity. I believe Harbaugh will purge some of the bad historical karma from this franchise and lead them into the playoffs for the first time since the infamous Jacksonville collapse in the wild card game in 2022. I do not expect the Chargers to have a deep playoff run…yet.

Since winning the Super Bowl in 2015, Denver looks lost as a franchise. With their search for a new franchise quarterback still ongoing, the Broncos have wasted some of the best defensive teams they have ever had. With ownership changes and general chaos surrounding recent head coaches, the Broncos still feel like a team running on a treadmill. A good season will get them to eight wins. But likely, this is another five-to-six-win team.

The Las Vegas Raiders need to apologize for the Autumn Wind. Because if Autumn is a Raider, then we haven’t really had too many good Fall seasons in the past forty years. Despite the excitement of being in a new city, the team feels the same, chaotic and lacking direction. I expect it to all fall apart again in 2024.

NFC East

1) Philadelphia
2) NY Giants
3) Dallas
4) Washington

The NFC East will be the division of chaos in 2024. My prediction requires certain things to occur below for this to happen. If you look at the last nineteen seasons, the NFC EAST HAS NOT HAD A REPEAT CHAMPION since the 2001-2004 Donovan McNabb Eagles ruled the roost. This pattern will continue to Year number 20. So why the Eagles?

Philadelphia is the unknown quantity right now. It all depends on how the team reacts to Nick Sirianni. Last season, the Eagles collapsed and finished 1-6 in the 2nd half of the year after an incredible 10-1 start. The team seemed to have given up on their coach. I believe this will continue. Four to five weeks into this season, the Eagles will fire Sirianni. This will save their season. Under an interim coach, the Eagles will become nasty again. Jalen Hurts will return to 2022 form, the defense will begin to roar, and they will look like the best team in the NFL again. This late push will get them to win the division in Week 17 or 18.

The NY Giants have built a very good defense. If the offensive line improves, I can see this team winning a bunch of 13-10 and 14-12 barn burners. The Giants do not appear to be capable of winning more than ten games, but I expect them to tie Dallas for 2nd and win the tiebreaker. I think they will still come up short for the playoffs.

This brings us to Dallas. Last year’s playoff loss in the wild card etched Dallas into NFL history. They became the first #2 seed to ever be knocked out of the playoffs before the divisional round. Dak Prescott is 2-5 as a playoff starter. With Mike McCarthy on the hot seat, I expect this Dallas season to be underwhelming due to the difficult schedule. Dallas will implode and miss the playoffs and McCarthy will be on the unemployment line again.

Washington is still building into something competitive. While they should be better on both sides of the ball, they are likely not going to see the results record-wise due to their brutal schedule. But in 2024, the Commanders will begin to look like a team with a plan and a direction.

NFC North

1) Green Bay
2) Chicago
3) Detroit
4) Minnesota

The NFC North will likely take its step to elite status and join the AFC North and NFC West. Every single one of these teams could make the playoffs (Like the AFC North) or be competitive all season (Like the NFC West).

With the way they finished the season, the Green Bay Packers looked like they may become the next elite NFC team. They dominated the Dallas Cowboys in the wild card and with a few better breaks, would have also defeated the 49ers. If this evolution continues, Jordan Love will become a Pro Bowler, the young defense will continue to develop, and this team may become the best team in the NFL. Their coaching staff is solid. The Packers are going to compete for the #1 seed this season.

With a good strong core, the Chicago Bears will take the next step up the competitive ladder and become a playoff team. With a rookie quarterback who will limit his mistakes, a good run game and a very good defense, the Bears will roar their way into the wild card slot.

Detroit is interesting. If it wasn’t for a few controversial decisions made by Dan Campbell, the Lions would have played in their first Super Bowl. Keeping this in mind, I think these decisions by their aggressive coach will cost this team a few games this year. Detroit will underperform but because of their immense talent, they will slide into a wild card spot in Week 18.

This leaves poor Minnesota. This team still can beat anyone in the NFL. But with a brutal division and a questionable quarterback, the Vikings will likely be looking up at the other three teams in the division. Look for them to pull a few upsets though.

NFC South

1) Atlanta
2) Tampa Bay
3) New Orleans
4) Carolina

Atlanta signing Kirk Cousins to go along with their future Pro Bowl running back Bijan Robinson means the Falcons are going to have an incredible offense in 2024. If their defense can play just average and force some key turnovers while limiting opponents’ points, this team will run away with the South this year.

Tampa Bay has won the South four consecutive seasons. After winning the Super Bowl in 2020 with Tom Brady, the Buccaneers have maintained their competitiveness inside of a weak division. Last year’s division title with Baker Mayfield and wild card win over the Eagles was a surprise to almost every NFL forecaster. Despite this, the Buccaneers are showing the same rust that catches up to all championship teams. The rebuilding process is closing in fast. 2024 may be their last chance at competitiveness before that reality becomes inevitable. Look for them to hang in there but come up short when the playoffs start.

New Orleans is in a weird place right now. They still have a lot of talent but also appear to be retooling key parts of their team. These Saints look like the epitome of a seven-to-eight-win team.

Carolina reached the bottom two years ago and is still in the process of climbing out. This will likely be another dark season in Charlotte.

NFC West

1) San Francisco
2) LA Rams
3) Seattle
4) Arizona

Having won two NFC championships, three division titles including two consecutive, and four appearances in NFC title games since 2019, the 49ers continue to possess the most talented running back in the game, an incredible offensive line, a bargain basement deal of a quarterback and an elite defense that is showing signs of cracking. Shanahan has now blown two Super Bowls where the 49ers had a ten-point lead. If injuries or age starts to creep up, the 49ers will slide back into mediocrity and irrelevance again. Winning the West in 2024 will be their last shot before the Rams and Cardinals start to take over. It is win or bust for the 49ers in 2024.

The LA Rams have recovered much quicker from their cap hell, all in it to win it mentality that delivered them a Super Bowl in 2021. Mainly due to great draft picks, the Rams slid into a wild card spot last year. 2024 will be a transition year for the team. A playoff berth may still be on offer if they win the games they are expected to win. This will get them into the playoffs as the last seed.

Seattle is interesting. Geno Smith is still playing well but you can’t help but believe that this is coming to an end. I can see Seattle becoming a more consistent team and discovering more depth especially on defense while also falling back on offense due to Smith’s regression. Seattle needs to prioritize the drafting of a QB in 2025. This lack of a good QB will cost them in 2024.
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Arizona is going to be in a lot of 41-38 and 34-33 games this year. The defense looks atrocious. But the offense may be one of the best in the NFL. This type of team is destined for a losing record. But if they can fix the defense, watch out for the Cardinals in 2024.

Here are my playoff picks.

AFC
1) Kansas City (Looking for the three-peat)
2) Cincinnati
3) Miami
4) Indianapolis
5) Baltimore
6) Buffalo
7) LA Chargers
 
NFC
1) San Francisco
2) Green Bay
3) Philadelphia
4) Atlanta
5) Chicago
6) Detroit
7) LA Rams

Enjoy the season!